'Qrb/501 – Week 3 – Forecasting with Indices\r'

'Week 3 †omen with Indices QRB/501 Week 3 †Forecasting with Indices The individual assignment for this workweek tasked the students to subscribe to one organization from either our week two assignment or the University material. This motif will provide the data in an index apply the time serial publication data to forecast register for the conterminous social class. The overwinter Historical Inventory information from the (University of Phoenix, 2010) turn ins four years of actual necessary of inventory data for the seasonal overwinter Highs. Each year is divided into 12 month increments.Methods This breakdown of data allows for three-figure analysis. This approach is objective in temper compared to qualitative analysis which is developed using the judgment of experts. Results The data was plotted and graphed into a chart to show the trend. Based on the chart the index has shown an increase from year to year during celestial latitude but the new(prenominal) winter months do not show a clear trend. University of Phoenix veridical Winter Historical Inventory data | Typical Seasonal Demand for Winter Highs| | | | | | | | | Actual Demands (in units)| | | | | | | | | Month| Year 1| Year 2| Year 3| Year 4| Forecast| 1| 55,200| 39,800| 32,180| 62,300| 47,370| 2| 57,350| 64,100| 38,600| 66,500| 56,638| 3| 15,400| 47,600| 25,020| 31,400| 29,855| 4| 27,700| 43,050| 51,300| 36,500| 39,638| 5| 21,400| 39,300| 31,790| 16,800| 27,323| 6| 17,100| 10,300| 31,100| 18,900| 19,350| 7| 18,000| 45,100| 59,800| 35,500| 39,600| 8| 19,800| 46,530| 30,740| 51,250| 37,080| 9| 15,700| 22,100| 47,800| 34,400| 30,000| 10| 53,600| 41,350| 73,890| 68,000| 59,210| 1| 83,200| 46,000| 60,200| 68,100| 64,375| 12| 72,900| 41,800| 55,200| 61,100| 57,750| Avg. | 38,113| 40,586| 44,802| 45,896| 42,349| ratiocination This inventory provides good information to give notice that forecasting December will show an increase but the some other winter months are not clear. My recommendation would be to would be to increase the inventory for December but hold the inventory for the other two winter months at an mediocre level. This would allow for the businesses minimal risk of inventory shortage and overage based on the data.\r\n'